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Flames burn at a facility belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco south of Riyadh on October 3, 2026. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images) / - | Afp | Getty Images Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open. Ceasefires normally require both sides to agree to stop the fighting.
But U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have streamlined the process: Just tell them they have. "Well, they agreed.
You know why? Because I said, 'You agree.' That's why," Trump said when asked why Russia and Ukraine denied accepting his proposed energy ceasefire. According to Kyiv, Russian drones did not get the memo.
Ukraine says six of its energy facilities were attacked Monday, while analysts doubt Trump's separate deal to bring Russian diesel onto the market will provide much relief at American pumps. What you need to know today U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday defended his decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian diesel, despite bipartisan criticism that the agreement could help finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
“I made the right choice for the American People — ALWAYS, AMERICA FIRST!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. This comes as seven senators — four Republicans and three Democrats — have called on the administration to reverse course, arguing that Washington "should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians." Trump argues that the additional supply will help lower record diesel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections. Analysts are less convinced , saying the initial shipments are modest relative to the global market, while damaged Russian refineries and logistical hurdles raise questions about how quickly the fuel can arrive.
The easing of Russian sanctions comes alongside a confused energy ceasefire that Trump had purportedly brokered between Kyiv and Moscow. Overnight, fresh Russian drone attacks hit Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accusing Moscow of breaking the ceasefire and warning that his country will retaliate. "It is increasingly evident that Russia is unwilling to accept an energy ceasefire proposed by the United States and intends to continue its terrorist air attacks against our people and communities," Zelenskyy said Monday in a post on X.
"Today alone, the Russians have attacked 6 energy facilities in Ukraine." Oil markets were also hardly reassured by Trump's claims of a ceasefire and any prospects of increased diesel supply. Brent crude futures added 1.8% to close at $106.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2% to settle at $93.74 on Monday.
The uncertainty was heightened further as Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen attacked King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh on Saturday, leaving 12 people dead and more than 300 injured in a major escalation. Higher prices, higher rates All the developments in the energy markets also means that high energy prices are likely to continue to pose an inflation headache to the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that higher interest rates may be necessary to prevent an “inflationary mindset” from becoming entrenched among businesses and consumers. Hammack said the Fed should move relatively quickly toward a restrictive policy stance, favoring smaller and more frequent adjustments over waiting until a larger correction becomes necessary. Markets expectations are pricing in one more Fed hike before the year is out, with traders expecting a 79.5% chance of a rate hike in the meeting starting Oct. 28, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
Over in the tech world, Microsoft will ramp up use of its homegrown artificial intelligence chips after previously mainly relying on Nvidia's graphics processing units. Starting with its third-generation Maia AI accelerator, unveiled on Monday, Microsoft said it will mainly rely on its own silicon to handle incoming requests. Nvidia's GPUs have been the standard for AI workloads and models, and are found in data centers owned by companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and Microsoft themselves.
IMF in Bangkok Over in Thailand, the International Monetary Fund's Annual Meetings in Bangkok are entering its second day. The IMF is expected to release its latest economic outlook forecast, what would offer some clues on how the fund sees the road ahead. Investors will also watch for whether it holds its global growth forecast near 3%, and how loudly it flags inflation risks.
Then on Friday comes the most closely watched event: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in conversation with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. It's his last scheduled public appearance before the Fed meets October 27 and 28. — Lim Hui Jie, Anniek Bao And finally...
Source: CNBC
